COLUMN
By ’Tunji Ajibade
Some latest developments make it imperative to continue with this write-up. These developments, first, make me ask the question – Which North do some Southerners talk about? Which North do they talk about in their political calculations? Is it a North which current political reality is taken into consideration, or a North that some just imagine from their memory of what transpired in the military era when North presented more military Heads of State than the South?
This is a pertinent question considering that some southerners have for long expressed the view that after President Muhammadu Buhari, the northern electorates would vote for another northerner to succeed him. The latest move by some northern state governors, asking that the presidency should now go to the South proves that such a view by doubters doesn’t reflect the reality in the North.
In fact, I never believed for one day that President Muhammadu Buhari would support any move that would make another politician of northern extraction succeed him and I stated this in private conversations in the last two years. Why? He had been there from the 1970s when, while working in the cabinet of the then Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo, a northerner was made to take over the presidency in 1979. As such, President Buhari understands the fault lines well enough to not support a northerner succeeding him in the presidency in a civilian dispensation. The president knows this is important for the peace and unity of this nation.
One can also be sure that the president has engaged in many political discussions with politicians, opinion leaders, religious leaders and traditional leaders in the North to suggest that he’s had enough wise counsel from them. With the quality of northern leaders in these various societal segmentations, I am sure the kind of advice these patriotic northern leaders would have given the president is that he should ensure no northerner succeeds him. I had met and discussed with enough of these urbane and highly patriotic northerners in the past three decades to know that this is the kind of counsel they would have given the president. Why? These leaders want Nigeria to continue to exist, and they wouldn’t want anything that would cause tension in addition to the ones already in existence.
Now, back to the northern governors. I stated it in second part of this write-up that northerners are more politically sophisticated than many southerners give them credit for. The opinion, economic, and political leaders know that it is in the interest of the nation, and in their own interests too to do what seems fair to other parts of the nation. This is a nation where no section of it is an island. The interconnections are too diverse, too tightly knit at different points that engaging in anything that could unravel the current state wouldn’t be in the interest of these leaders. They know this. These are economic and political leaders who have tentacles across the country, in marriages, investments, or friendships. Would they put all of that in jeopardy just because one northerner should sit in the presidency after President Buhari? No, they won’t. They are too politically aware than that.
These economic and political leaders know that it is by giving everyone a sense of belonging, in practicing fairness, they too would benefit. In any case, southerner or northerner in the presidency, the north’s presence and benefits from the federal government are secure. They are because there are institutions which ensure no part of the nation is left out of the picture, or denied what it should get. In fact, sometimes when a southerner is in the presidency, more northerners have been known to occupy more position of responsibilities as was the case under President Obasanjo. There are institutions as well, such as the legislature, where northerners present ensure that north’s interests are protected. In the event, a northerner in the presidency can sometimes be more for symbolic value and bragging right, not that it especially confers more benefits on the north. Northern political elites who are themselves often looking out for their own interests realize this
I stated in previous parts of this write-up that those northerners who entered the race for the presidency especially under the APC flag know the other things they are jostling for. Surely, they know that they cannot succeed President Buhari. I have also stated that as the current political scene further unfolds, we will see what such northerners who buy the APC presidential forms are actually positioning themselves for. Now, with the support that northern governors have declared in favour of the emergence of a southerner as president on the APC ticket, there is every possibility that the party will present a Muslim-Muslim ticket. There are many reasons such a ticket will win in the presidential election, and a few of them are as follows.
One, APC’s rival political party, the PDP, may have harmed its chances in the 2023 presidential election by presenting a candidate of northern origin. For this, the south-east that normally supports PDP is angry. They do not get a PDP presidential candidate, and they do not even look like they may get the vice-presidential slot. That may go to the south-south. In the event, will Ndigbo take out their anger on the PDP by abstaining from voting or even vote for other political parties? If these happen, the chances of APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket that has a presidential candidate from the south becomes better strengthened. Even at that, there are other factors that may harm the PDP votes in the south-east. There are now two states in that part with APC governors – Imo, Ebonyi. This was not completely the case in 2015 and 2019 when PDP was able to get many votes in the south-east. The presence of two states under APC governors in the south-east means that a possible APC Muslim-Muslim ticket may pick bigger votes than it did in the past in that part of the country.
In addition, there is the Peter Obi factor, He was once a vice-presidential candidate in the 2019 general elections. He is loved by Ndigbo and seen as a brilliant man and administrator. Now, he is the presidential candidate of Labour Party. He is likely to pilfer PDP votes in the south-east, not APC votes. Under that scenario, the APC Muslim-Muslim ticket wins better in the south-east when its PDP rival is weakened. Furthermore, APGA remains a force in the south-east. If its presidential candidate picks any significant number of votes, it’s likely to be potential PDP vote, not APC’s. This too helps a possible APC Muslim-Muslim ticket.
It must also not be forgotten that the zoning of political position under the umbrella of APC strongly favours senate presidency going to the south-east. That is, if the president comes from the south-west, the VP from the north, then the south-east will have a good chance of being allotted the senate presidency. There is no doubt that governors in the south-east who belong to the APC are aware of this possibility. As such APC States in the south-east will work for the success of any ticket, Muslim-Muslim or otherwise.
tunjioa@yahoo.com
