By ’Tunji Ajibade
tunjioa@yahoo.com
The British Prime Minister, Ms Liz Truss, resigned a few hours ago. The race to select a new PM has begun and some names have come up, prominent among them is the immediate past PM, Right Honourable Boris Johnson. One male Briton has since excitedly said: “People are saying bring Boris Johnson back, bring Johnson back. So let’s bring him back.” One MP has however been heard saying those who think Johnson can return to the post must have had a short memory of political history. This MP must have forgotten the current state of his party and what is good for it, at this time, if it must remain afloat. In any case, Johnson left office under circumstances much different from that of Truss.
Johnson was never accused on the same issues based on the economy that saw the end of the administration of the current PM. Johnson was a Prime Minister who had managed the economy effectively during one of the most difficult times in the history of the nation. He brought the nation through the debilitating covid-19 pandemic. He brought the nation through Brexit as the people said they wanted in a referendum. This was something a previous minister couldn’t achieve, repeatedly failing as she did to get the endorsement of her fellow MPs for her version of the Brexit document that needed to be signed with Brussels. Johnson pulled it through with his good standing among MPs across political parties.
In his time, the economic condition of the people was relative better and he was working hard to still improve it at the time some Tory MPs forced him resign. It’s noteworthy that his government never had the opportunity to settle down and execute all the plans and policies it had. One thing or the other upset it, making his government try to cope with unforeseen issues such as the covid-19 pandemic, the global inflationary trend, and the Ukraine crisis that was at the root of much of the global economic instability. He was the PM who got do Brexit done and hardly was he out of it when the pandemic set in by March 2020. He did smartly manage the Ukraine dilemma in a way that was popular with citizens and people across the world, adding enormously to his popularity across the globe. Since he left office, at any event where his name was mentioned in the UK, there was a loud round of applause. Johnson remains a much respected personality and no one should forget that. His electoral value remains immense, much more so than any other Tory currently in the leadership race, except any MP would deceive themselves.
I stated these issues in, “Did Boris Johnson commit any ‘offence’ known to politics?” in The PUNCH newspaper – https://punchng.com/did-boris-johnson-commit-offence-known-to-politics/. In it I concluded that Johnson wasn’t any worse than the most celebrated to UK former PMs. Now, why should Johnson be the lead contender in the latest race? One, he is a vote winner. He won for the Conservative Party its largest majority ever in parliament. There is no doubt that he will deliver votes on any day for the Tories more than any of the other contenders being mentioned including Rishi Sunak who is the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, Ben Wallace the Defence Minister, Penny Mordaunt, Kemi Badenoch, Grant Sharpe, and Suella Braverman all of whom have been cabinet ministers themselves. Wallace has since said he would not be contesting and that he supports Johnson. Why? Wallace says it is because Johnson won a mandate for the Tories in 2019 and he should return to continue with his job. Meanwhile, the Tories will need to go for a vote winner, the party leader who can help them win their seats back on any election day. Johnson holds the aces there.
None of the other contenders at the moment can do this better than Johnson and all MPs know it. This is a man that is able to carry voters along with him. He knows how to communicate in a way that resonates with people. He is charismatic, and more so than the other contenders. Even the leader of the opposition party cannot match him, if any general election were a matter of personality against personality.
The latest selection process is for MPs. Members will vote who should become the next Tory leader. So, what is going on within the party? There are different groups each with the contender they support. Johnson has supporters, all keen to have him back in office. They have not forgiven all those seen to have worked to force Johnson to resign, particularly Rishi Sunak. That means Sunak can not get the support of the Johnsonian MPs. Of the rest of the publicly named contestants, only Mordaunt has thrown her hat in the ring. But her capacity to lead is viewed with suspicion, and she doesn’t seem likely to get the requirement she needs to proceed.
This is so because the party has changed the rules for the purpose of quickly getting the leadership contest done with. This time, one hundred MPs must vote for each of the contestants for them to be considered for the last stage of the contest. There are less than three hundred Tory MPs. This means only two contestants will get 100 votes out of those listed as contestants at this time. Johnson is most likely to get the numbers and his fellow MPs are already saying so. He is one figure who still commands solid and unequivocal followership, and this works in his favour and against other contestants. Why? The division within the party is so strong at the moment that there is a need to have coalitions across the various groups formed by the MPs if any other contestant must beat him. To form such coalitions, time is needed and this is what the Tory MPs don’t have because the party has set one week to come up with a new leader.
More than this, the voting will be done online to fasten the process. This means MPs may have more independence to make their own choice. The last time this process happened, MPs consulted a lot among themselves and some of them voted based on recommendations made by others. The chances of the same happening now is slimmer with the tight schedule. Why is this important, and why should it work in favour of a contender, particularly, Johnson? He is the one candidate who has a followership that is clearly identifiable among the MPs. The direction they will go is never in doubt at any time. Same cannot be said of any other contestant. Other contenders will still need coalition of other MPs at least at the latter stage of the contest. In the event, Johnson is more than likely to have votes he needs to proceed in the entire process. In case Sunak, for instance, emerges as his rival, Sunak will find it more difficult to have support because many MPs who still don’t feel comfortable with him over his role in the removal of Johnson.
It must be stated though that this scenario will play out accordingly if the party remains fractious. They need to come up with a unifying candidate, but the mood in the party doesn’t seem this will be as easy as it sounds. The animosity running across groups is sharp and shocking, a thing displayed as Tories moved to the voting room more than 24 hours ago to vote on Truss’s policy. There was pushing and shoving among MPs, temper was high and it was obvious that the party was in disarray like never before. Who has the personality and presence to be a unifying leader if he comes to office? Johnson is that politician. None of the other contenders can do it. If these others are ever elected, the Tories will crawl towards 2024 in disarray and in a weaker state than they are at the moment.
It needs also to be remembered that Johnson left office not because the totality of the public rejected him, and many continued to support him till the last moment, but because MPs felt their seat were threatened in those limited constituencies where opinion wasn’t in favour of the Tories at that stage. As a person, Johnson remained the best known politician, charismatic and the kind of vote winner that even Tory politicians in Wales would support. He helped then to win their largest number of seat in parliament ever. The Wales MPs will count for something in the current race and it makes Johnson a contender to watch.
Overall, it must not be forgotten that if any achievement had been made under the Tories since 2019, it happened under Johnson’s watch. No one who worked under him can take credit for that more than the leader of that administration. He was the leader and he made his ministers work hard for the people until he was forced to resign.
More than plans and policies, sometimes it takes the force of personality of the head of an administration to push some things through. Johnson did that, all who worked under him from the Chancellor to the last cabinet minister, performed under his able leadership. This cannot be overlooked by some who now try to deflect the credit away from him and give it to some of the contestants in the latest race, particularly Sunak. If Johnson achieved all he did yesterday, he will achieve much more if MPs trust him with their votes the second time.
